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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bryce Mitchell won · U-DEC R3

Elo1528

Elo1375

Bryce MitchellvsBobby MoffettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Saturday, March 23, 2019Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Bryce Mitchell won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBryce Mitchell: WrestlervsBobby Moffett: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Bryce Mitchell wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Bryce Mitchell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryce Mitchell at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bobby Moffett has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryce Mitchell (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bryce Mitchell

Red Corner

Bobby Moffett

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1528

Elo

1375

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryce MitchellW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23

KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24

SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 25

SUBvs Santiago Luna · Jun 26

latest

Bobby Moffett

oldest →

vs Chas Skelly · Nov 18

vs Enrique Barzola · Aug 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryce MitchellMetricBobby Moffett

2.27

Strikes / min

3.41

1.60

Strikes absorbed / min

3.15

58%

Strike defense

61%

3.24

TDs / 15 min

2.74

33%

Takedown defense

66%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryce MitchellBobby Moffett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)Bobby Moffett(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +153.0|Blue -153.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +127.0|Blue -127.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryce MitchellTargetBobby Moffett

By target zone

24% acc · 41%

Head

14% acc · 56%

64% acc · 41%

Body

50% acc · 11%

75% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

39% acc · 94%

Distance

20% acc · 89%

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryce Mitchell rounds

even

Bobby Moffett rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:58

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 2Bobby Moffett edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:47

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 3Bobby Moffett edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:28

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:36Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 44

Sig Strikes

9 / 42

37%

Sig Str %

22.7%

28 / 56

Total Strikes

25 / 63

0 / 3

TDs

5 / 8

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:13

Ctrl Time

6:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bobby Moffett	2 / 17	3 / 18	1 / 2	0
1	Bryce Mitchell	7 / 17	8 / 18	0 / 2	1
2	Bobby Moffett	3 / 14	5 / 17	2 / 2	1
2	Bryce Mitchell	7 / 16	15 / 25	0 / 0	0
3	Bobby Moffett	4 / 11	17 / 28	2 / 4	1
3	Bryce Mitchell	3 / 11	5 / 13	0 / 1	1

Bryce Mitchell

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Bobby Moffett

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3