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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Caraway won · SUB R3

Elo1369

Elo1373

Bryan CarawayvsMitch GagnonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · Saturday, July 21, 2012Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Bryan Caraway won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:39

Style matchupBryan Caraway: WrestlervsMitch Gagnon: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Bryan Caraway wins(87.7%)

Actual result: Bryan Caraway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryan Caraway at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Bryan Caraway threatens submissions; Mitch Gagnon has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Bryan Caraway has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bryan Caraway

Red Corner

Mitch Gagnon

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1369

Elo

1373

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryan CarawayL2 streak

oldest →

vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14

vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16

vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18

KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18

latest

Mitch GagnonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Gorman · Apr 14

SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14

SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14

vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16

vs Cole Smith · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryan CarawayMetricMitch Gagnon

2.53

Strikes / min

2.76

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

2.21

54%

Strike defense

61%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

1.16

80%

Takedown defense

65%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.08Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryan CarawayMitch Gagnon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryan Caraway(10 fights)Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.5|Blue +3.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryan CarawayTargetMitch Gagnon

By target zone

20% acc · 73%

Head

38% acc · 85%

100% acc · 27%

Body

75% acc · 11%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

13% acc · 36%

Distance

38% acc · 44%

67% acc · 36%

Clinch

43% acc · 33%

43% acc · 27%

Ground

50% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryan Caraway rounds

even

Mitch Gagnon rounds

Round 1Mitch Gagnon edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:07

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:03Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:03

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 3Bryan Caraway edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control1:09

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 45

Sig Strikes

27 / 65

19.3%

Sig Str %

39%

82 / 146

Total Strikes

45 / 89

3 / 9

TDs

1 / 5

40%

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

5:19

Ctrl Time

3:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mitch Gagnon	11 / 23	24 / 40	1 / 5	0
1	Bryan Caraway	5 / 20	25 / 42	1 / 2	0
2	Mitch Gagnon	13 / 32	18 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Bryan Caraway	6 / 18	49 / 83	1 / 5	0
3	Mitch Gagnon	3 / 10	3 / 10	0 / 0	0
3	Bryan Caraway	0 / 7	8 / 21	1 / 2	1

Bryan Caraway

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10

Mitch Gagnon

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8