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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Caraway won · SUB R3

Elo1369

Elo1354

Bryan CarawayvsJohnny BedfordUFC Prediction Result

UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · Saturday, April 27, 2013Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Caraway won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:44

Style matchupBryan Caraway: WrestlervsJohnny Bedford: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Johnny Bedford wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Bryan Caraway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Bedford at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Caraway threatens submissions; Johnny Bedford has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Bryan Caraway has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bryan Caraway

Red Corner

Johnny Bedford

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1369

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryan CarawayL2 streak

oldest →

vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14

vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16

vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18

KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18

latest

Johnny BedfordL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Louis Gaudinot · Dec 11

KOvs Marcos Vinicius · Dec 12

KOvs Cody Gibson · Jun 14

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Sep 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryan CarawayMetricJohnny Bedford

2.53

Strikes / min

4.53

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

54%

Strike defense

63%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

1.83

80%

Takedown defense

62%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.08Δ 3.86 — meaningful gap+2.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryan CarawayJohnny Bedford

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryan Caraway(10 fights)Johnny Bedford(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.5|Blue -15.5

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryan CarawayTargetJohnny Bedford

By target zone

38% acc · 88%

Head

28% acc · 60%

63% acc · 12%

Body

84% acc · 32%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

39% acc · 95%

Distance

36% acc · 90%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryan Caraway rounds

even

Johnny Bedford rounds

Round 1Bryan Caraway edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control1:40

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bryan Caraway edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:12

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Bryan Caraway edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control2:28

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 108

Sig Strikes

50 / 131

40.3%

Sig Str %

38.3%

125 / 202

Total Strikes

59 / 140

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

38.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:20

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Johnny Bedford	23 / 62	23 / 62	0 / 0	0
1	Bryan Caraway	16 / 43	42 / 70	2 / 3	0
2	Johnny Bedford	15 / 41	22 / 48	0 / 1	0
2	Bryan Caraway	14 / 38	46 / 77	1 / 2	0
3	Johnny Bedford	12 / 28	14 / 30	0 / 0	0
3	Bryan Caraway	13 / 27	37 / 55	0 / 2	1

Bryan Caraway

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10

Johnny Bedford

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5