Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rinat Fakhretdinov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1523

Elo1540

Bryan BattlevsRinat FakhretdinovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Saturday, December 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rinat Fakhretdinov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBryan Battle: Pressure fightervsRinat Fakhretdinov: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rinat Fakhretdinov at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Battle enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Rinat Fakhretdinov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Rinat Fakhretdinov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rinat Fakhretdinov has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bryan Battle

Red Corner

Rinat Fakhretdinov

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1523

Elo

1540

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryan BattleW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Takashi Sato · Aug 22

KOvs Gabe Green · May 23

SUBvs AJ Fletcher · Sep 23

KOvs Kevin Jousset · Sep 24

vs Randy Brown · Dec 24

latest

Rinat FakhretdinovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Andreas Michailidis · Jun 22

SUBvs Kevin Lee · Jul 23

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jun 24

vs Carlos Leal · Oct 24

KOvs Andreas Gustafsson · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryan BattleMetricRinat Fakhretdinov

5.12

Strikes / min

5.03

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

44%

Strike defense

54%

0.77

TDs / 15 min

3.91

53%

Takedown defense

91%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.01evenly matched on net striking+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryan BattleRinat Fakhretdinov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryan Battle(8 fights)Rinat Fakhretdinov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.4|Blue +17.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryan BattleTargetRinat Fakhretdinov

By target zone

9% acc · 33%

Head

61% acc · 88%

25% acc · 33%

Body

67% acc · 5%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

19% acc · 100%

Distance

73% acc · 19%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

Ground

61% acc · 77%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryan Battle rounds

even

Rinat Fakhretdinov rounds

Round 1Rinat Fakhretdinov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:41Control

Round 2Rinat Fakhretdinov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:49Control

Round 3Rinat Fakhretdinov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:41Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 16

Sig Strikes

43 / 68

21.7%

Sig Str %

63%

25 / 42

Total Strikes

102 / 149

0 / 1

TDs

7 / 9

TD %

77.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

14:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rinat Fakhretdinov	19 / 30	37 / 52	2 / 3
1	Bryan Battle	1 / 3	3 / 5	0 / 0
2	Rinat Fakhretdinov	10 / 15	30 / 42	2 / 3
2	Bryan Battle	1 / 5	12 / 18	0 / 0
3	Rinat Fakhretdinov	14 / 23	35 / 55	3 / 3
3	Bryan Battle	1 / 8	10 / 19	0 / 1

Bryan Battle

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8

Rinat Fakhretdinov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6