Welterweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Battle won · SUB R2

Elo1523

Elo1495

Bryan BattlevsAJ FletcherUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Saturday, September 23, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Battle won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:32

Model Prediction: Bryan Battle wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Bryan Battle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryan Battle at -192 American odds

+$52 profit

$152 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Battle enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Bryan Battle has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors AJ Fletcher (52.9%).
Bryan Battle has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Bryan Battle

Red Corner

AJ Fletcher

Blue Corner

-192

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1523

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryan BattleW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Takashi Sato · Aug 22

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Dec 22

KOvs Gabe Green · May 23

KOvs Kevin Jousset · Sep 24

vs Randy Brown · Dec 24

latest

AJ Fletcher

oldest →

vs Matthew Semelsberger · Mar 22

vs Ange Loosa · Aug 22

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Feb 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryan BattleMetricAJ Fletcher

5.12

Strikes / min

3.36

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

44%

Strike defense

46%

0.77

TDs / 15 min

1.54

53%

Takedown defense

33%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.01Δ 2.26 — meaningful gap-1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryan BattleAJ Fletcher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryan Battle(8 fights)AJ Fletcher(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.5|Blue -27.5

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryan BattleTargetAJ Fletcher

By target zone

36% acc · 20%

Head

23% acc · 24%

65% acc · 76%

Body

67% acc · 24%

67% acc · 4%

Leg

81% acc · 52%

By position

48% acc · 64%

Distance

49% acc · 80%

84% acc · 36%

Clinch

56% acc · 20%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryan Battle rounds

even

AJ Fletcher rounds

Round 1Bryan Battle edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Bryan Battle edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control3:30

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 80

Sig Strikes

25 / 51

59.5%

Sig Str %

50%

63 / 105

Total Strikes

29 / 57

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:30

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	AJ Fletcher	18 / 38	18 / 38	0 / 1	0
1	Bryan Battle	23 / 50	23 / 50	0 / 0	0
2	AJ Fletcher	7 / 13	11 / 19	0 / 1	0
2	Bryan Battle	22 / 30	40 / 55	1 / 2	1

Bryan Battle

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8

AJ Fletcher

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4