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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Randy Brown won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1498

Bryan BarberenavsRandy BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, June 22, 2019Greenville, South Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Randy Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:54

Style matchupBryan Barberena: Pressure fightervsRandy Brown: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Randy Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryan Barberena at -235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Randy Brown has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).
Randy Brown has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Bryan Barberena

Red Corner

Randy Brown

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1491

Elo

1498

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryan BarberenaMetricRandy Brown

5.35

Strikes / min

4.39

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

44%

Strike defense

53%

0.13

TDs / 15 min

0.71

50%

Takedown defense

74%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.76evenly matched on net striking+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryan BarberenaRandy Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryan Barberena(10 fights)Randy Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.1|Blue +6.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -218.0|Blue +218.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryan BarberenaTargetRandy Brown

By target zone

27% acc · 32%

Head

45% acc · 49%

69% acc · 23%

Body

76% acc · 35%

70% acc · 45%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

38% acc · 62%

Distance

50% acc · 66%

75% acc · 32%

Clinch

91% acc · 34%

75% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryan Barberena rounds

even

Randy Brown rounds

Round 1Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:07

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:51

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 3Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 101

Sig Strikes

89 / 152

47.3%

Sig Str %

58%

122 / 178

Total Strikes

91 / 154

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

2:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Randy Brown	29 / 50	29 / 50	0 / 0
1	Bryan Barberena	16 / 25	60 / 70	0 / 0
2	Randy Brown	22 / 38	24 / 40	0 / 0
2	Bryan Barberena	21 / 48	52 / 80	0 / 0
3	Randy Brown	38 / 64	38 / 64	0 / 0
3	Bryan Barberena	10 / 28	10 / 28	0 / 0

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21