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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Dos Anjos won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1491

Bryan BarberenavsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Saturday, December 3, 2022Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:20

Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Dos Anjos at -425 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Rafael Dos Anjos has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Bryan Barberena

Red Corner

Rafael Dos Anjos

Blue Corner

+340

(23%)

Vegas Odds

-425

(81%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryan BarberenaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Matt Brown · Mar 22

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Rafael Dos AnjosL4 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Mar 22

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryan BarberenaMetricRafael Dos Anjos

5.35

Strikes / min

3.48

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

44%

Strike defense

60%

0.13

TDs / 15 min

1.95

50%

Takedown defense

54%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.76evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryan BarberenaRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryan Barberena(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryan BarberenaTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

33% acc · 43%

Head

38% acc · 15%

67% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 85%

80% acc · 29%

Leg

By position

40% acc · 71%

Distance

38% acc · 15%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

100% acc · 14%

Ground

100% acc · 70%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryan Barberena rounds

even

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:06Control

Round 2Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:35

4Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 29

Sig Strikes

20 / 25

48.5%

Sig Str %

80%

61 / 79

Total Strikes

36 / 41

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 6

—

TD %

62.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:35

Ctrl Time

6:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	16 / 20	30 / 34	1 / 2	1
1	Bryan Barberena	9 / 19	25 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	4 / 5	6 / 7	3 / 4	1
2	Bryan Barberena	5 / 10	36 / 44	0 / 0	0

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32