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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jason Witt won · M-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1432

Bryan BarberenavsJason WittUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · Saturday, July 31, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jason Witt won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBryan Barberena: Pressure fightervsJason Witt: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jason Witt wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Jason Witt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Witt at +215 American odds

+$215 profit

$315 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jason Witt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jason Witt threatens submissions; Bryan Barberena has lost 30% of fights by sub.
Jason Witt has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bryan Barberena

Red Corner

Jason Witt

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1491

Elo

1432

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Jason WittL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Takashi Sato · Jun 20

SUBvs Cole Williams · Oct 20

KOvs Matthew Semelsberger · Mar 21

KOvs Phil Rowe · Feb 22

KOvs Josh Quinlan · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryan BarberenaMetricJason Witt

5.35

Strikes / min

2.15

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.54

44%

Strike defense

52%

0.13

TDs / 15 min

6.90

50%

Takedown defense

100%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.76Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryan BarberenaJason Witt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryan Barberena(10 fights)Jason Witt(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.2|Blue -59.2

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryan BarberenaTargetJason Witt

By target zone

45% acc · 100%

Head

38% acc · 77%

0% acc

Body

67% acc · 23%

Leg

By position

40% acc · 80%

Distance

37% acc · 71%

67% acc · 8%

Clinch

60% acc · 17%

75% acc · 12%

Ground

67% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryan Barberena rounds

even

Jason Witt rounds

Round 1Jason Witt edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:30Control

Round 2Jason Witt edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:31

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:19Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:16

14Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

1:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 113

Sig Strikes

35 / 83

38.3%

Sig Str %

46%

114 / 178

Total Strikes

56 / 105

0 / 1

TDs

8 / 18

TD %

47.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

5:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jason Witt	10 / 15	17 / 23	2 / 3	0
1	Bryan Barberena	5 / 18	38 / 52	0 / 0	0
2	Jason Witt	11 / 32	21 / 42	2 / 6	1
2	Bryan Barberena	12 / 37	32 / 57	0 / 1	0
3	Jason Witt	14 / 36	18 / 40	4 / 9	0
3	Bryan Barberena	33 / 58	44 / 69	0 / 0	0

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Jason Witt

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6