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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Barberena won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1433

Bryan BarberenavsDarian WeeksUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · Saturday, December 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Barberena won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBryan Barberena: Pressure fightervsDarian Weeks: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Darian Weeks wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Bryan Barberena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darian Weeks at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Darian Weeks has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bryan Barberena

Red Corner

Darian Weeks

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1491

Elo

1433

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Darian WeeksL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ian Garry · Apr 22

vs Yohan Lainesse · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryan BarberenaMetricDarian Weeks

5.35

Strikes / min

4.49

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

4.56

44%

Strike defense

51%

0.13

TDs / 15 min

2.00

50%

Takedown defense

100%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.76evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryan BarberenaDarian Weeks

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryan Barberena(10 fights)Darian Weeks(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.0|Blue -58.0

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -47.1|Blue +47.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryan BarberenaTargetDarian Weeks

By target zone

36% acc · 51%

Head

46% acc · 53%

83% acc · 28%

Body

73% acc · 31%

79% acc · 21%

Leg

86% acc · 16%

By position

47% acc · 90%

Distance

101

54% acc · 86%

92% acc · 10%

Clinch

78% acc · 12%

Ground

75% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryan Barberena rounds

even

Darian Weeks rounds

Round 1Darian Weeks edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:21

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 2Darian Weeks edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

49Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 3Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes55

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:58Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

108 / 217

Sig Strikes

118 / 209

49%

Sig Str %

56%

134 / 243

Total Strikes

125 / 217

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 8

—

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

3:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Darian Weeks	26 / 45	29 / 49	1 / 3
1	Bryan Barberena	21 / 40	24 / 43	0 / 0
2	Darian Weeks	49 / 85	52 / 88	2 / 2
2	Bryan Barberena	32 / 75	38 / 81	0 / 0
3	Darian Weeks	43 / 79	44 / 80	1 / 3
3	Bryan Barberena	55 / 102	72 / 119	0 / 0

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Darian Weeks

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3