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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Colby Covington won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1491

Bryan BarberenavsColby CovingtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · Saturday, December 17, 2016Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Colby Covington won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBryan Barberena: Pressure fightervsColby Covington: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Covington at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Colby Covington has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Colby Covington has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bryan Barberena

Red Corner

Colby Covington

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Colby CovingtonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20

vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21

vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22

vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryan BarberenaMetricColby Covington

5.35

Strikes / min

3.81

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

44%

Strike defense

54%

0.13

TDs / 15 min

3.64

50%

Takedown defense

68%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.76evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryan BarberenaColby Covington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryan Barberena(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryan BarberenaTargetColby Covington

By target zone

30% acc · 71%

Head

48% acc · 74%

67% acc · 5%

Body

75% acc · 16%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

34% acc · 83%

Distance

48% acc · 78%

56% acc · 12%

Clinch

91% acc · 13%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryan Barberena rounds

even

Colby Covington rounds

Round 1Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

6Takedowns

3:25Control

Round 2Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:59Control

Round 3Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 111

Sig Strikes

76 / 141

35.3%

Sig Str %

52.3%

100 / 172

Total Strikes

96 / 167

0 / 0

TDs

12 / 17

—

TD %

68.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

9:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Colby Covington	15 / 32	18 / 35	6 / 7
1	Bryan Barberena	8 / 26	30 / 48	0 / 0
2	Colby Covington	36 / 58	38 / 62	3 / 5
2	Bryan Barberena	14 / 37	30 / 54	0 / 0
3	Colby Covington	25 / 51	40 / 70	3 / 5
3	Bryan Barberena	19 / 48	40 / 70	0 / 0

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17