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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Barberena won · U-DEC

Elo1491

Elo1389

Bryan BarberenavsAnthony IvyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Saturday, September 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Barberena won

U-DEC

Style matchupBryan Barberena: Pressure fightervsAnthony Ivy: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Bryan Barberena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryan Barberena at -278 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Anthony Ivy has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bryan Barberena

Red Corner

Anthony Ivy

Blue Corner

-278

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1491

Elo

1389

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Anthony Ivy

oldest →

KOvs Christian Aguilera · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryan BarberenaMetricAnthony Ivy

5.35

Strikes / min

2.50

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

44%

Strike defense

51%

0.13

TDs / 15 min

4.69

50%

Takedown defense

100%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.76Δ 2.83 — meaningful gap-2.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryan BarberenaAnthony Ivy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryan Barberena(10 fights)Anthony Ivy(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +102.8|Blue -102.8

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +3.4|Blue -3.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +357.0|Blue -357.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryan BarberenaTargetAnthony Ivy

By target zone

45% acc · 78%

Head

36% acc · 72%

91% acc · 16%

Body

83% acc · 28%

80% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 63%

Distance

36% acc · 53%

60% acc · 29%

Clinch

52% acc · 31%

71% acc · 8%

Ground

60% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryan Barberena rounds

even

Anthony Ivy rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:12

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:41Control

Round 2Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:38

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Anthony Ivy edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:07

12Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:01Control

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 126

Sig Strikes

36 / 84

50.3%

Sig Str %

42%

175 / 250

Total Strikes

54 / 105

0 / 1

TDs

5 / 24

TD %

18.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:57

Ctrl Time

5:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Ivy	7 / 17	13 / 26	2 / 7	0
1	Bryan Barberena	16 / 29	82 / 100	0 / 0	0
2	Anthony Ivy	17 / 36	20 / 39	0 / 6	0
2	Bryan Barberena	30 / 62	48 / 83	0 / 1	0
3	Anthony Ivy	12 / 31	21 / 40	3 / 11	0
3	Bryan Barberena	17 / 35	45 / 67	0 / 0	2

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Anthony Ivy

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2