← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joshua Van won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1453

Elo1599

Bruno SilvavsJoshua VanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Saturday, June 7, 2025Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Joshua Van won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:01

Style matchupBruno Silva: Well-roundedvsJoshua Van: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Joshua Van wins(85.5%)

Actual result: Joshua Van wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Van at -720 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Van enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joshua Van has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bruno Silva has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Bruno Silva

Red Corner

Joshua Van

Blue Corner

+520

(16%)

Vegas Odds

-720

(88%)

1453

Elo

1599

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'5"

187.96 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bruno SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 25

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Oct 25

vs Charles Johnson · Mar 26

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Jun 26

latest

Joshua VanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Durden · Dec 24

vs Rei Tsuruya · Mar 25

vs Brandon Royval · Jun 25

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bruno SilvaMetricJoshua Van

3.86

Strikes / min

8.43

5.35

Strikes absorbed / min

5.82

41%

Strike defense

58%

0.77

TDs / 15 min

0.82

74%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.49Δ 4.10 — meaningful gap+2.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bruno SilvaJoshua Van

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bruno Silva(10 fights)Joshua Van(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -146.0|Blue +146.0

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bruno SilvaTargetJoshua Van

By target zone

37% acc · 49%

Head

108

55% acc · 86%

68% acc · 17%

Body

79% acc · 9%

90% acc · 34%

Leg

86% acc · 5%

By position

50% acc · 96%

Distance

55% acc · 78%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

80% acc · 3%

Ground

69% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bruno Silva rounds

even

Joshua Van rounds

Round 1Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:09

Knockdowns0

52Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

2Knockdowns

Round 3Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 149

Sig Strikes

125 / 217

50.7%

Sig Str %

56.7%

77 / 150

Total Strikes

149 / 241

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joshua Van	28 / 55	28 / 55	0 / 0
1	Bruno Silva	22 / 40	22 / 40	0 / 2
2	Joshua Van	52 / 93	76 / 117	0 / 0
2	Bruno Silva	22 / 49	22 / 49	1 / 3
3	Joshua Van	45 / 69	45 / 69	0 / 0
3	Bruno Silva	32 / 60	33 / 61	0 / 1

Bruno Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights23

Joshua Van

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights11