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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gerald Meerschaert won · SUB R3

Elo1453

Elo1457

Bruno SilvavsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · Saturday, August 13, 2022San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Gerald Meerschaert won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:39

Style matchupBruno Silva: Well-roundedvsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Bruno Silva wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Gerald Meerschaert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bruno Silva at -295 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bruno Silva has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bruno Silva

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

-295

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1453

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bruno SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Jun 25

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Oct 25

vs Charles Johnson · Mar 26

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Jun 26

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bruno SilvaMetricGerald Meerschaert

3.86

Strikes / min

2.95

5.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

41%

Strike defense

53%

0.77

TDs / 15 min

1.70

74%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.49evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bruno SilvaGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bruno Silva(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.5|Blue +3.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bruno SilvaTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

28% acc · 59%

Head

30% acc · 61%

43% acc · 21%

Body

75% acc · 20%

86% acc · 21%

Leg

90% acc · 20%

By position

34% acc · 93%

Distance

38% acc · 78%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

Ground

53% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bruno Silva rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:55Control

Round 2Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 81

Sig Strikes

46 / 114

39%

Sig Str %

42.7%

38 / 93

Total Strikes

61 / 136

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

2:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gerald Meerschaert	12 / 38	20 / 52	1 / 1	0
1	Bruno Silva	10 / 26	19 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Gerald Meerschaert	19 / 51	19 / 51	0 / 2	0
2	Bruno Silva	12 / 41	12 / 41	0 / 0	0
3	Gerald Meerschaert	15 / 25	22 / 33	0 / 3	1
3	Bruno Silva	7 / 14	7 / 14	0 / 0	0

Bruno Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights23

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25