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Flyweight

3 Rounds

David Dvorak won · U-DEC R3

Elo1453

Elo1463

Bruno SilvavsDavid DvorakUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Saturday, March 14, 2020Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

David Dvorak won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBruno Silva: Well-roundedvsDavid Dvorak: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Bruno Silva wins(66.6%)

Actual result: David Dvorak wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bruno Silva at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

David Dvorak enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
David Dvorak has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bruno Silva has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Bruno Silva

Red Corner

David Dvorak

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1453

Elo

1463

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'5"

187.96 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bruno SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Jun 25

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Oct 25

vs Charles Johnson · Mar 26

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Jun 26

latest

David DvorakL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Espinosa · Sep 20

SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · May 21

vs Matheus Nicolau · Mar 22

vs Manel Kape · Dec 22

vs Steve Erceg · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bruno SilvaMetricDavid Dvorak

3.86

Strikes / min

3.48

5.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

41%

Strike defense

59%

0.77

TDs / 15 min

0.58

74%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.49Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bruno SilvaDavid Dvorak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bruno Silva(10 fights)David Dvorak(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.7|Blue +9.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bruno SilvaTargetDavid Dvorak

By target zone

36% acc · 56%

Head

41% acc · 52%

71% acc · 27%

Body

65% acc · 36%

73% acc · 18%

Leg

80% acc · 12%

By position

43% acc · 78%

Distance

48% acc · 76%

80% acc · 18%

Clinch

58% acc · 21%

40% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bruno Silva rounds

even

David Dvorak rounds

Round 1Bruno Silva edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:51

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2David Dvorak edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:13

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3David Dvorak edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:28

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 97

Sig Strikes

67 / 133

45.3%

Sig Str %

48%

60 / 112

Total Strikes

92 / 161

3 / 11

TDs

0 / 1

31.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:32

Ctrl Time

1:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	David Dvorak	14 / 38	21 / 47	0 / 0
1	Bruno Silva	19 / 33	23 / 37	1 / 2
2	David Dvorak	17 / 35	29 / 48	0 / 0
2	Bruno Silva	8 / 21	10 / 23	1 / 4
3	David Dvorak	36 / 60	42 / 66	0 / 1
3	Bruno Silva	18 / 43	27 / 52	1 / 5

Bruno Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights23

David Dvorak

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6