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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Krzysztof Jotko won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1496

Bruno SantosvsKrzysztof JotkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot · Friday, December 6, 2013Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Krzysztof Jotko won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBruno Santos: WrestlervsKrzysztof Jotko: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Krzysztof Jotko wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Krzysztof Jotko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Krzysztof Jotko at +215 American odds

+$215 profit

$315 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Krzysztof Jotko has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Krzysztof Jotko (53.5%).
Krzysztof Jotko has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Bruno Santos

Red Corner

Krzysztof Jotko

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1490

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'1"

175.26 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bruno Santos

oldest →

vs Chris Camozzi · Jul 14

vs Elias Theodorou · Oct 14

latest

Krzysztof Jotko

oldest →

vs Eryk Anders · May 20

vs Sean Strickland · May 21

vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bruno SantosMetricKrzysztof Jotko

1.18

Strikes / min

2.98

2.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

56%

Strike defense

57%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

1.33

66%

Takedown defense

82%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09Δ 1.84 — meaningful gap+0.75

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bruno Santos(3 fights)Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.8|Blue +5.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bruno SantosTargetKrzysztof Jotko

By target zone

25% acc · 25%

Head

23% acc · 47%

57% acc · 33%

Body

75% acc · 35%

100% acc · 42%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

31% acc · 42%

Distance

28% acc · 59%

88% acc · 58%

Clinch

70% acc · 41%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bruno Santos rounds

even

Krzysztof Jotko rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:41

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:34

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 3Bruno Santos edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:41

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 24

Sig Strikes

17 / 46

49%

Sig Str %

33.3%

31 / 45

Total Strikes

84 / 120

1 / 12

TDs

1 / 4

33.3%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

4:56

Ctrl Time

3:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Krzysztof Jotko	4 / 11	18 / 27	1 / 3	0
1	Bruno Santos	4 / 7	11 / 14	0 / 7	0
2	Krzysztof Jotko	11 / 25	33 / 50	0 / 1	0
2	Bruno Santos	6 / 12	9 / 16	0 / 4	0
3	Krzysztof Jotko	2 / 10	33 / 43	0 / 0	0
3	Bruno Santos	2 / 5	11 / 15	1 / 1	1

Bruno Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights3

Krzysztof Jotko

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16