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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Brunno Ferreira won · SUB R1
Elo1504
Brunno Ferreira editorial illustration
Elo1496

Brunno FerreiravsJackson McVeyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Brunno Ferreira won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:35

Model Prediction: Jackson McVey wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Brunno Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Brunno Ferreira has 28pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Brunno Ferreira has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jackson McVey (53.5%).
  • Jackson McVey has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brunno Ferreira
Red Corner
VS
Jackson McVey
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1504
Elo
1496
33
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
6'4"
182.88 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brunno FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Oct 24
W
SUBvs Armen Petrosyan · Mar 25
W
vs Marvin Vettori · Dec 25
L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Mar 26
L
DECvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 26
latest
Jackson McVey
oldest →
L
SUBvs Zach Reese · Nov 25
W
SUBvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brunno FerreiraMetricJackson McVey
3.77
Strikes / min
6.51
3.91
Strikes absorbed / min
3.37
51%
Strike defense
23%
1.25
TDs / 15 min
0.00
61%
Takedown defense
0%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.14Δ 3.28 — meaningful gap+3.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1500Strikes3.8 vs 5.9Takedowns1.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 0.0
Brunno FerreiraJackson McVey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501475150015251550← oldermost recent →
Brunno Ferreira(10 fights)Jackson McVey(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +7.8|Blue -7.8
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brunno FerreiraTargetJackson McVey

By target zone

4
80% acc · 57%
Head
3
23% acc · 75%
1
50% acc · 14%
Body
1
50% acc · 25%
2
100% acc · 29%
Leg
0

By position

6
75% acc · 86%
Distance
4
27% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 14%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Brunno Ferreira rounds
0
even
0
Jackson McVey rounds
Round 1Brunno Ferreira edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control1:07
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
7 / 9
Sig Strikes
4 / 15
77%
Sig Str %
26%
9 / 11
Total Strikes
4 / 15
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:07
Ctrl Time
0:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jackson McVey4 / 154 / 150 / 10
1Brunno Ferreira7 / 99 / 111 / 11

Brunno Ferreira

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights10

Jackson McVey

StanceSouthpaw
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4