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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brunno Ferreira won · SUB R2

Elo1504

Elo1484

Brunno FerreiravsArmen PetrosyanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brunno Ferreira won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:27

Style matchupBrunno Ferreira: Well-roundedvsArmen Petrosyan: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Armen Petrosyan wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Brunno Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Armen Petrosyan at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brunno Ferreira has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brunno Ferreira

Red Corner

Armen Petrosyan

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1504

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brunno FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Oct 24

SUBvs Jackson McVey · Jul 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Dec 25

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Mar 26

DECvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 26

latest

Armen PetrosyanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Caio Borralho · Jul 22

vs AJ Dobson · Oct 22

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jun 23

SUBvs Rodolfo Vieira · Feb 24

KOvs Shara Magomedov · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brunno FerreiraMetricArmen Petrosyan

3.77

Strikes / min

5.84

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

51%

Strike defense

53%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

0.17

61%

Takedown defense

41%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.14Δ 2.67 — meaningful gap+2.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brunno FerreiraArmen Petrosyan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brunno Ferreira(10 fights)Armen Petrosyan(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.1|Blue -20.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brunno FerreiraTargetArmen Petrosyan

By target zone

35% acc · 52%

Head

35% acc · 41%

90% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 15%

67% acc · 15%

Leg

91% acc · 43%

By position

47% acc · 93%

Distance

55% acc · 100%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brunno Ferreira rounds

even

Armen Petrosyan rounds

Round 1Armen Petrosyan edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:18

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Armen Petrosyan edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control0:54

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 56

Sig Strikes

46 / 83

48.5%

Sig Str %

55%

31 / 63

Total Strikes

47 / 84

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Armen Petrosyan	22 / 39	23 / 40	0 / 0	0
1	Brunno Ferreira	13 / 25	14 / 26	0 / 4	0
2	Armen Petrosyan	24 / 44	24 / 44	0 / 0	0
2	Brunno Ferreira	14 / 31	17 / 37	2 / 3	1

Brunno Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Armen Petrosyan

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7