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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Ketlen Souza won · U-DEC R3

Elo1463

Elo1523

Bruna BrasilvsKetlen SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Saturday, February 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ketlen Souza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBruna Brasil: Well-roundedvsKetlen Souza: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Ketlen Souza wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Ketlen Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ketlen Souza at -152 American odds

+$66 profit

$166 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Bruna Brasil

Red Corner

Ketlen Souza

Blue Corner

+128

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-152

(60%)

1463

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bruna BrasilL2 streak

oldest →

vs Shauna Bannon · Jul 23

vs Loma Lookboonmee · Feb 24

vs Molly McCann · Jul 24

vs Wang Cong · Feb 25

vs Alexia Thainara · Mar 26

latest

Ketlen Souza

oldest →

vs Marnic Mann · Apr 24

SUBvs Yazmin Jauregui · Sep 24

vs Angela Hill · Feb 25

vs Piera Rodriguez · Aug 25

KOvs Ariane Carnelossi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bruna BrasilMetricKetlen Souza

2.56

Strikes / min

4.01

3.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

52%

Strike defense

52%

1.23

TDs / 15 min

0.46

57%

Takedown defense

53%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.19Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bruna BrasilKetlen Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bruna Brasil(7 fights)Ketlen Souza(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.3|Blue +60.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bruna BrasilTargetKetlen Souza

By target zone

31% acc · 32%

Head

43% acc · 55%

74% acc · 55%

Body

55% acc · 36%

80% acc · 13%

Leg

60% acc · 9%

By position

47% acc · 81%

Distance

41% acc · 73%

86% acc · 19%

Clinch

90% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bruna Brasil rounds

even

Ketlen Souza rounds

Round 1Bruna Brasil edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:10

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:26Control

Round 2Ketlen Souza edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:20

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:15Control

Round 3Ketlen Souza edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:11

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 60

Sig Strikes

33 / 69

51.3%

Sig Str %

45.7%

65 / 101

Total Strikes

64 / 109

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 8

33.3%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

8:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ketlen Souza	5 / 13	19 / 30	0 / 3
1	Bruna Brasil	12 / 19	32 / 41	1 / 1
2	Ketlen Souza	14 / 30	26 / 48	0 / 2
2	Bruna Brasil	7 / 16	11 / 20	0 / 1
3	Ketlen Souza	14 / 26	19 / 31	1 / 3
3	Bruna Brasil	12 / 25	22 / 40	0 / 2

Bruna Brasil

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7

Ketlen Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights7