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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Denise Gomes won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1463

Elo1539

Bruna BrasilvsDenise GomesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Saturday, April 15, 2023Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Denise Gomes won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:42

Style matchupBruna Brasil: Well-roundedvsDenise Gomes: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Denise Gomes wins(76.3%)

Actual result: Denise Gomes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Denise Gomes at +132 American odds

+$132 profit

$232 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bruna Brasil enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Denise Gomes enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Bruna Brasil

Red Corner

Denise Gomes

Blue Corner

-156

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+132

(43%)

1463

Elo

1539

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'2"

165.1 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bruna BrasilL3 streak

oldest →

vs Loma Lookboonmee · Feb 24

vs Molly McCann · Jul 24

vs Wang Cong · Feb 25

vs Ketlen Souza · Feb 26

vs Alexia Thainara · Mar 26

latest

Denise GomesW4 streak

oldest →

vs Angela Hill · Nov 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jun 24

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Nov 24

KOvs Elise Reed · May 25

vs Tecia Pennington · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bruna BrasilMetricDenise Gomes

2.56

Strikes / min

4.43

3.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.16

52%

Strike defense

51%

1.23

TDs / 15 min

1.45

57%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.19Δ 2.46 — meaningful gap+1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bruna BrasilDenise Gomes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bruna Brasil(7 fights)Denise Gomes(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -75.8|Blue +75.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bruna BrasilTargetDenise Gomes

By target zone

64% acc · 47%

Head

48% acc · 52%

75% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 15%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

67% acc · 33%

By position

60% acc · 60%

Distance

45% acc · 39%

86% acc · 40%

Clinch

83% acc · 19%

Ground

68% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bruna Brasil rounds

even

Denise Gomes rounds

Round 1Denise Gomes edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:19

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:00Control

Round 2Denise Gomes edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

31Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:53Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 22

Sig Strikes

54 / 93

68.5%

Sig Str %

57.5%

43 / 50

Total Strikes

94 / 133

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 3

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:19

Ctrl Time

3:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Denise Gomes	23 / 40	58 / 75	1 / 1
1	Bruna Brasil	10 / 15	29 / 34	0 / 1
2	Denise Gomes	31 / 53	36 / 58	2 / 2
2	Bruna Brasil	5 / 7	14 / 16	0 / 0

Bruna Brasil

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7

Denise Gomes

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights8