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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Brok Weaver won · DQ R1

Elo1389

Elo1494

Brok WeavervsKazula VargasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · Saturday, February 15, 2020Rio Rancho, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Brok Weaver won

DQ · Round 1 · 4:02

Style matchupBrok Weaver: Pressure fightervsKazula Vargas: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Brok Weaver wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Brok Weaver wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brok Weaver at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kazula Vargas has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Brok Weaver has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brok Weaver

Red Corner

Kazula Vargas

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1389

Elo

1494

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brok WeaverL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Roosevelt Roberts · May 20

SUBvs Jalin Turner · Sep 20

latest

Kazula Vargas

oldest →

vs Alex Da Silva · Aug 19

vs Rong Zhu · Apr 21

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brok WeaverMetricKazula Vargas

4.78

Strikes / min

3.65

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

1.77

46%

Strike defense

57%

0.41

TDs / 15 min

0.40

66%

Takedown defense

30%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+1.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brok WeaverKazula Vargas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brok Weaver(3 fights)Kazula Vargas(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -105.4|Blue +105.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brok WeaverTargetKazula Vargas

By target zone

50% acc · 60%

Head

43% acc · 40%

Body

50% acc · 33%

67% acc · 40%

Leg

80% acc · 27%

By position

57% acc · 80%

Distance

43% acc · 60%

0% acc

Clinch

60% acc · 20%

100% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brok Weaver rounds

even

Kazula Vargas rounds

Round 1Kazula Vargas edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:07Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 9

Sig Strikes

15 / 29

55%

Sig Str %

51%

6 / 10

Total Strikes

50 / 64

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kazula Vargas	15 / 29	50 / 64	1 / 2	0
1	Brok Weaver	5 / 9	6 / 10	0 / 0	1

Brok Weaver

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Kazula Vargas

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4