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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Brock Lesnar won · SUB R2

Elo1351

Brock LesnarvsShane CarwinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · Saturday, July 3, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brock Lesnar won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:19

Style matchupBrock Lesnar: WrestlervsShane Carwin: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Brock Lesnar wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Brock Lesnar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brock Lesnar at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shane Carwin is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Brock Lesnar has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Brock Lesnar threatens submissions; Shane Carwin has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Brock Lesnar has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brock Lesnar

Red Corner

Shane Carwin

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1351

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

205.74 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brock LesnarL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Oct 10

KOvs Alistair Overeem · Dec 11

latest

Shane Carwin

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Mar 10

vs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brock LesnarMetricShane Carwin

3.53

Strikes / min

4.38

2.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

50%

Strike defense

53%

3.90

TDs / 15 min

1.42

60%

Takedown defense

42%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brock LesnarShane Carwin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brock Lesnar(3 fights)Shane Carwin(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brock LesnarTargetShane Carwin

By target zone

22% acc · 25%

Head

46% acc · 98%

100% acc · 63%

Body

100% acc · 3%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

21% acc · 8%

100% acc · 38%

Clinch

43% acc · 15%

100% acc · 63%

Ground

54% acc · 78%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brock Lesnar rounds

even

Shane Carwin rounds

Round 1Shane Carwin edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:04

Knockdowns0

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:44Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Brock Lesnar edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:29

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 15

Sig Strikes

40 / 85

54%

Sig Str %

25%

28 / 37

Total Strikes

61 / 112

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:33

Ctrl Time

2:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shane Carwin	40 / 79	61 / 106	0 / 0	0
1	Brock Lesnar	3 / 8	17 / 24	0 / 3	0
2	Shane Carwin	0 / 6	0 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Brock Lesnar	5 / 7	11 / 13	1 / 1	1

Brock Lesnar

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights3

Shane Carwin

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights3