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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Cain Velasquez won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1351
Brock Lesnar
Elo1491
Cain Velasquez

Brock LesnarvsCain VelasquezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · Saturday, October 23, 2010Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Cain Velasquez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:12

Style matchupBrock Lesnar: WrestlervsCain Velasquez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Brock Lesnar wins(51.3%)

Actual result: Cain Velasquez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brock Lesnar at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Cain Velasquez is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Brock Lesnar has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Brock Lesnar threatens submissions; Cain Velasquez has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Cain Velasquez has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Brock Lesnar has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brock Lesnar
Red Corner
VS
Cain Velasquez
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1351
Elo
1491
49
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
205.74 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brock Lesnar
oldest →
W
SUBvs Shane Carwin · Jul 10
L
KOvs Alistair Overeem · Dec 11
latest
Cain Velasquez
oldest →
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13
W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Oct 13
L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 15
W
KOvs Travis Browne · Jul 16
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Feb 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brock LesnarMetricCain Velasquez
3.53
Strikes / min
6.37
2.11
Strikes absorbed / min
2.33
50%
Strike defense
57%
3.90
TDs / 15 min
5.13
60%
Takedown defense
85%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.42Δ 2.62 — meaningful gap+4.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1500Strikes29.4 vs 43.7Takedowns2.0 vs 2.3Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.33Form1.0 vs 0.0
Brock LesnarCain Velasquez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Brock Lesnar(3 fights)Cain Velasquez(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -140.2|Blue +140.2
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -47.6|Blue +47.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brock LesnarTargetCain Velasquez

By target zone

7
44% acc · 78%
Head
30
45% acc · 97%
2
67% acc · 22%
Body
1
100% acc · 3%
0
Leg
0

By position

5
36% acc · 56%
Distance
11
37% acc · 35%
4
80% acc · 44%
Clinch
4
80% acc · 13%
0
Ground
16
50% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brock Lesnar rounds
0
even
1
Cain Velasquez rounds
Round 1Cain Velasquez edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:17
Knockdowns0
31Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:43Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
9 / 19
Sig Strikes
31 / 67
47%
Sig Str %
46%
13 / 23
Total Strikes
62 / 107
1 / 3
TDs
1 / 2
33%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:17
Ctrl Time
1:43

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cain Velasquez31 / 6762 / 1071 / 20
1Brock Lesnar9 / 1913 / 231 / 30

Brock Lesnar

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights3

Cain Velasquez

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights9