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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1351
Brock Lesnar
Elo1493

Brock LesnarvsAlistair OvereemUFC Prediction Result

UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · Friday, December 30, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alistair Overeem won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:26

Style matchupBrock Lesnar: WrestlervsAlistair Overeem: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Brock Lesnar wins(68.3%)

Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brock Lesnar at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Brock Lesnar has lost 100% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Brock Lesnar
Red Corner
VS
Alistair Overeem
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
1351
Elo
1493
49
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
205.74 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brock Lesnar
oldest →
W
SUBvs Shane Carwin · Jul 10
L
KOvs Cain Velasquez · Oct 10
latest
Alistair Overeem
oldest →
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19
W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20
W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20
L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brock LesnarMetricAlistair Overeem
3.53
Strikes / min
3.67
2.11
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
50%
Strike defense
57%
3.90
TDs / 15 min
1.42
60%
Takedown defense
73%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.42evenly matched on net striking+1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes26.0 vs —Takedowns1.8 vs —Sub Atts0.33 vs —Form-0.1 vs 0.0
Brock LesnarAlistair Overeem

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Brock Lesnar(3 fights)Alistair Overeem(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -141.9|Blue +141.9
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -47.8|Blue +47.8
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brock LesnarTargetAlistair Overeem

By target zone

3
21% acc · 50%
Head
11
69% acc · 58%
1
100% acc · 17%
Body
8
100% acc · 42%
2
67% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

5
29% acc · 83%
Distance
4
100% acc · 21%
1
100% acc · 17%
Clinch
11
100% acc · 58%
0
Ground
4
44% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brock Lesnar rounds
0
even
1
Alistair Overeem rounds
Round 1Alistair Overeem edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 18
Sig Strikes
19 / 24
33%
Sig Str %
79%
8 / 20
Total Strikes
20 / 25
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alistair Overeem19 / 2420 / 250 / 00
1Brock Lesnar6 / 188 / 200 / 10

Brock Lesnar

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights3

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20