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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Brian Stann won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1352
Brian Stann
Elo1352
Jorge Santiago

Brian StannvsJorge SantiagoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · Saturday, May 28, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brian Stann won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:29

Model Prediction: Brian Stann wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Brian Stann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Stann at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Brian Stann
Red Corner
VS
Jorge Santiago
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1352
Elo
1352
45
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian StannL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Chris Leben · Jan 11
L
SUBvs Chael Sonnen · Oct 11
W
KOvs Alessio Sakara · Apr 12
L
vs Michael Bisping · Sep 12
L
KOvs Wanderlei Silva · Mar 13
latest
Jorge SantiagoL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Demian Maia · Oct 11
L
vs Gunnar Nelson · Feb 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian StannMetricJorge Santiago
3.28
Strikes / min
1.69
2.65
Strikes absorbed / min
2.62
59%
Strike defense
56%
0.12
TDs / 15 min
0.58
60%
Takedown defense
52%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.63Δ 1.56 — meaningful gap-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1538 vs 1500Strikes27.7 vs 9.7Takedowns0.0 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.50 vs 1.00Form1.0 vs 0.0
Brian StannJorge Santiago

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Brian Stann(7 fights)Jorge Santiago(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -48.3|Blue +48.3
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian StannTargetJorge Santiago

By target zone

26
36% acc · 55%
Head
10
26% acc · 71%
4
67% acc · 9%
Body
2
100% acc · 14%
17
85% acc · 36%
Leg
2
67% acc · 14%

By position

32
43% acc · 68%
Distance
13
33% acc · 93%
0
Clinch
1
33% acc · 7%
15
63% acc · 32%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Brian Stann rounds
0
even
0
Jorge Santiago rounds
Round 1Brian Stann edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control1:36
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Brian Stann edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:06
Knockdowns1
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
47 / 99
Sig Strikes
14 / 43
46.5%
Sig Str %
31%
77 / 135
Total Strikes
16 / 45
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:42
Ctrl Time
0:15

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jorge Santiago4 / 146 / 160 / 00
1Brian Stann26 / 5152 / 830 / 00
2Jorge Santiago10 / 2910 / 290 / 20
2Brian Stann21 / 4825 / 520 / 00

Brian Stann

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7

Jorge Santiago

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3