← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brian Stann won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1352

Elo1353

Brian StannvsAlessio SakaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · Saturday, April 14, 2012Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Brian Stann won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:26

Style matchupBrian Stann: Well-roundedvsAlessio Sakara: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Brian Stann wins(71.9%)

Actual result: Brian Stann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Stann at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Stann enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alessio Sakara enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Stann

Red Corner

Alessio Sakara

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1352

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian StannL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Leben · Jan 11

KOvs Jorge Santiago · May 11

SUBvs Chael Sonnen · Oct 11

vs Michael Bisping · Sep 12

KOvs Wanderlei Silva · Mar 13

latest

Alessio SakaraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs James Irvin · Mar 10

vs Chris Weidman · Mar 11

vs Patrick Cote · Nov 12

SUBvs Nico Musoke · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian StannMetricAlessio Sakara

3.28

Strikes / min

3.96

2.65

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

59%

Strike defense

59%

0.12

TDs / 15 min

2.18

60%

Takedown defense

62%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.63evenly matched on net striking+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian StannAlessio Sakara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Stann(7 fights)Alessio Sakara(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -219.0|Blue +219.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian StannTargetAlessio Sakara

By target zone

48% acc · 78%

Head

42% acc · 71%

100% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 29%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 39%

Distance

50% acc · 71%

63% acc · 28%

Clinch

50% acc · 29%

67% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Stann rounds

even

Alessio Sakara rounds

Round 1Brian Stann edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:17

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 33

Sig Strikes

7 / 14

54%

Sig Str %

50%

28 / 47

Total Strikes

13 / 20

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alessio Sakara	7 / 14	13 / 20	0 / 0	0
1	Brian Stann	18 / 33	28 / 47	0 / 0	0

Brian Stann

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Alessio Sakara

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5