← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

5 Rounds

Yair Rodriguez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1489

Elo1504

Brian OrtegavsYair RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 16, 2022Elmont, New York, USA

Official fight result

Yair Rodriguez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:11

Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yair Rodriguez at +165 American odds

+$165 profit

$265 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brian Ortega

Red Corner

Yair Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1489

Elo

1504

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian OrtegaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chan Sung Jung · Oct 20

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21

SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25

latest

Yair Rodriguez

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Nov 21

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24

vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian OrtegaMetricYair Rodriguez

3.84

Strikes / min

4.65

6.38

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

49%

Strike defense

52%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

0.71

54%

Takedown defense

59%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.54Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap+0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian OrtegaYair Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Ortega(10 fights)Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.1|Blue +15.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian OrtegaTargetYair Rodriguez

By target zone

60% acc · 82%

Head

44% acc · 78%

100% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 22%

By position

56% acc · 68%

Distance

48% acc · 91%

88% acc · 32%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Ortega rounds

even

Yair Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Brian Ortega edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control2:24

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 35

Sig Strikes

23 / 46

62%

Sig Str %

50%

26 / 39

Total Strikes

48 / 76

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

20%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yair Rodriguez	23 / 46	48 / 76	0 / 0	0
1	Brian Ortega	22 / 35	26 / 39	1 / 5	0

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15