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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Brian Ortega won · SUB R3

Elo1489

Elo1523

Brian OrtegavsRenato MoicanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2017Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Brian Ortega won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:59

Model Prediction: Brian Ortega wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Brian Ortega wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Ortega at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renato Moicano has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brian Ortega

Red Corner

Renato Moicano

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1489

Elo

1523

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian OrtegaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22

SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25

latest

Renato Moicano

oldest →

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian OrtegaMetricRenato Moicano

3.84

Strikes / min

4.10

6.38

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

49%

Strike defense

59%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

1.68

54%

Takedown defense

64%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.54Δ 3.09 — meaningful gap+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian OrtegaRenato Moicano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Ortega(10 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.8|Blue +33.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +315.0|Blue -315.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian OrtegaTargetRenato Moicano

By target zone

25% acc · 75%

Head

40% acc · 83%

74% acc · 22%

Body

62% acc · 7%

67% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

29% acc · 98%

Distance

109

43% acc · 100%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Ortega rounds

even

Renato Moicano rounds

Round 1Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 220

Sig Strikes

109 / 252

29%

Sig Str %

43.3%

65 / 220

Total Strikes

111 / 254

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Renato Moicano	41 / 89	41 / 89	0 / 0	0
1	Brian Ortega	21 / 75	21 / 75	0 / 0	0
2	Renato Moicano	42 / 105	44 / 107	1 / 1	0
2	Brian Ortega	26 / 82	26 / 82	0 / 0	0
3	Renato Moicano	26 / 58	26 / 58	1 / 1	0
3	Brian Ortega	18 / 63	18 / 63	0 / 2	1

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20