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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Diego Lopes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1549

Brian OrtegavsDiego LopesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · Saturday, September 14, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Diego Lopes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Diego Lopes wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Diego Lopes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Lopes at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brian Ortega

Red Corner

Diego Lopes

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1489

Elo

1549

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian Ortega

oldest →

vs Chan Sung Jung · Oct 20

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22

SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25

latest

Diego Lopes

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jun 24

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25

KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26

KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian OrtegaMetricDiego Lopes

3.84

Strikes / min

3.83

6.38

Strikes absorbed / min

4.56

49%

Strike defense

45%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

0.88

54%

Takedown defense

68%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.54Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap-0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian OrtegaDiego Lopes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Ortega(10 fights)Diego Lopes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.7|Blue +60.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian OrtegaTargetDiego Lopes

By target zone

29% acc · 83%

Head

44% acc · 71%

50% acc · 6%

Body

87% acc · 12%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

95% acc · 17%

By position

32% acc · 97%

Distance

47% acc · 71%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

86% acc · 6%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

66% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Ortega rounds

even

Diego Lopes rounds

Round 1Diego Lopes edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:03Control

Round 2Diego Lopes edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Diego Lopes edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:06

55Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 195

Sig Strikes

106 / 206

32.3%

Sig Str %

50%

69 / 201

Total Strikes

113 / 214

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

2:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Diego Lopes	29 / 57	34 / 63	1 / 1
1	Brian Ortega	15 / 45	21 / 51	0 / 0
2	Diego Lopes	22 / 46	22 / 46	0 / 0
2	Brian Ortega	16 / 48	16 / 48	0 / 1
3	Diego Lopes	55 / 103	57 / 105	0 / 0
3	Brian Ortega	32 / 102	32 / 102	0 / 1

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Diego Lopes

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9