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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Brian Ortega won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1489

Elo1490

Brian OrtegavsClay GuidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Saturday, June 4, 2016Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Brian Ortega won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:40

Model Prediction: Brian Ortega wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Brian Ortega wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Ortega at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Brian Ortega threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Clay Guida has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brian Ortega

Red Corner

Clay Guida

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1489

Elo

1490

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian OrtegaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22

SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25

latest

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian OrtegaMetricClay Guida

3.84

Strikes / min

2.63

6.38

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

49%

Strike defense

61%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

3.10

54%

Takedown defense

66%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.54Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian OrtegaClay Guida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Ortega(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian OrtegaTargetClay Guida

By target zone

30% acc · 84%

Head

26% acc · 68%

69% acc · 15%

Body

62% acc · 21%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

32% acc · 97%

Distance

31% acc · 94%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Ortega rounds

even

Clay Guida rounds

Round 1Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:02

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Brian Ortega edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 189

Sig Strikes

62 / 192

29%

Sig Str %

31.3%

62 / 189

Total Strikes

70 / 209

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 6

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Clay Guida	17 / 55	25 / 72	0 / 3
1	Brian Ortega	5 / 29	5 / 29	0 / 0
2	Clay Guida	25 / 72	25 / 72	0 / 3
2	Brian Ortega	25 / 77	25 / 77	0 / 0
3	Clay Guida	20 / 65	20 / 65	0 / 0
3	Brian Ortega	32 / 83	32 / 83	0 / 0

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27