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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Brian Ortega won · U-DEC
Elo1489
Brian Ortega
Elo1474
Chan Sung Jung

Brian OrtegavsChan Sung JungUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, October 17, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Brian Ortega won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Brian Ortega wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Brian Ortega wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Ortega at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chan Sung Jung has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brian Ortega
Red Corner
VS
Chan Sung Jung
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
1489
Elo
1474
35
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian OrtegaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21
L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24
L
vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24
L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25
latest
Chan Sung JungL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Renato Moicano · Jun 19
W
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 19
W
vs Dan Ige · Jun 21
L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 22
L
KOvs Max Holloway · Aug 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian OrtegaMetricChan Sung Jung
3.84
Strikes / min
3.93
6.38
Strikes absorbed / min
4.52
49%
Strike defense
52%
0.93
TDs / 15 min
0.70
54%
Takedown defense
72%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.54Δ 1.95 — meaningful gap-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1589 vs 1571Strikes4.1 vs 4.6Takedowns0.5 vs 0.8Sub Atts1.40 vs 0.60Form0.2 vs 0.7
Brian OrtegaChan Sung Jung

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Brian Ortega(10 fights)Chan Sung Jung(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +15.0|Blue -15.0
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +378.0|Blue -378.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian OrtegaTargetChan Sung Jung

By target zone

64
47% acc · 50%
Head
35
28% acc · 56%
22
79% acc · 17%
Body
14
67% acc · 23%
41
84% acc · 32%
Leg
13
87% acc · 21%

By position

118
59% acc · 93%
Distance
62
38% acc · 100%
5
71% acc · 4%
Clinch
0
0% acc
4
67% acc · 3%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Brian Ortega rounds
0
even
0
Chan Sung Jung rounds
Round 1Brian Ortega edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns1
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Brian Ortega edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns2
Control0:35
Knockdowns1
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Brian Ortega edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Brian Ortega edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control0:22
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Brian Ortega edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
127 / 212
Sig Strikes
62 / 163
59.2%
Sig Str %
37.4%
129 / 214
Total Strikes
64 / 166
3 / 10
TDs
0 / 0
22.8%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:57
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chan Sung Jung14 / 2614 / 260 / 00
1Brian Ortega24 / 3924 / 390 / 00
2Chan Sung Jung14 / 3414 / 340 / 00
2Brian Ortega23 / 3724 / 382 / 30
3Chan Sung Jung7 / 327 / 320 / 00
3Brian Ortega28 / 4228 / 420 / 10
4Brian Ortega17 / 3518 / 361 / 40
4Chan Sung Jung8 / 2610 / 290 / 00
5Chan Sung Jung19 / 4519 / 450 / 00
5Brian Ortega35 / 5935 / 590 / 20

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13

Chan Sung Jung

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights12