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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Aljamain Sterling won · U-DEC R5
Elo1489
Brian Ortega
Elo1524
Aljamain Sterling

Brian OrtegavsAljamain SterlingUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 23, 2025Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at -490 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Aljamain Sterling has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brian Ortega
Red Corner
VS
Aljamain Sterling
Blue Corner
+380
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-490
(83%)
1489
Elo
1524
35
Age
37
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian Ortega
oldest →
W
vs Chan Sung Jung · Oct 20
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21
L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24
L
vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24
latest
Aljamain Sterling
oldest →
W
vs Henry Cejudo · May 23
L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23
W
vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24
L
vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24
W
DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian OrtegaMetricAljamain Sterling
3.84
Strikes / min
4.26
6.38
Strikes absorbed / min
2.15
49%
Strike defense
59%
0.93
TDs / 15 min
2.54
54%
Takedown defense
44%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.54Δ 4.65 — meaningful gap+2.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1574 vs 1656Strikes3.8 vs 4.5Takedowns0.9 vs 2.5Sub Atts0.90 vs 0.60Form-0.3 vs -0.1
Brian OrtegaAljamain Sterling

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Brian Ortega(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -35.5|Blue +35.5
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian OrtegaTargetAljamain Sterling

By target zone

30
22% acc · 55%
Head
77
44% acc · 62%
20
69% acc · 36%
Body
21
81% acc · 17%
5
71% acc · 9%
Leg
26
100% acc · 21%

By position

54
31% acc · 98%
Distance
100
51% acc · 81%
0
Clinch
7
100% acc · 6%
1
100% acc · 2%
Ground
17
77% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brian Ortega rounds
0
even
5
Aljamain Sterling rounds
Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:02
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:36Control
Round 5Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:06
24Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:19Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
55 / 174
Sig Strikes
124 / 227
30.2%
Sig Str %
55.8%
100 / 225
Total Strikes
153 / 262
0 / 2
TDs
3 / 6
0%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:08
Ctrl Time
3:55

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Brian Ortega2 / 282 / 280 / 00
1Aljamain Sterling27 / 4427 / 440 / 00
2Brian Ortega9 / 409 / 400 / 00
2Aljamain Sterling13 / 5413 / 540 / 00
3Aljamain Sterling35 / 5235 / 520 / 10
3Brian Ortega21 / 4221 / 420 / 10
4Brian Ortega13 / 3729 / 550 / 00
4Aljamain Sterling25 / 3935 / 491 / 10
5Brian Ortega10 / 2739 / 600 / 10
5Aljamain Sterling24 / 3843 / 632 / 40

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights23