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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Umar Nurmagomedov won · SUB R1

Elo1489

Elo1537

Brian KellehervsUmar NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Umar Nurmagomedov won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:15

Style matchupBrian Kelleher: Well-roundedvsUmar Nurmagomedov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov wins(77.6%)

Actual result: Umar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Umar Nurmagomedov at -1000 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Umar Nurmagomedov has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brian Kelleher

Red Corner

Umar Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

+650

(13%)

Vegas Odds

-1000

(91%)

1489

Elo

1537

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian KelleherL3 streak

oldest →

vs Domingo Pilarte · Aug 21

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Umar NurmagomedovW2 streak

oldest →

vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian KelleherMetricUmar Nurmagomedov

3.31

Strikes / min

3.86

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

1.86

54%

Strike defense

61%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

4.03

60%

Takedown defense

79%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.28Δ 3.28 — meaningful gap+2.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian KelleherUmar Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -360.0|Blue +360.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian KelleherTargetUmar Nurmagomedov

By target zone

0% acc

Head

60% acc · 50%

0% acc

Body

78% acc · 39%

50% acc · 100%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

6% acc · 100%

Distance

62% acc · 72%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 28%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Kelleher rounds

even

Umar Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:06

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 19

Sig Strikes

18 / 26

Sig Str %

69%

1 / 19

Total Strikes

21 / 29

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 5

—

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Umar Nurmagomedov	18 / 26	21 / 29	1 / 5	1
1	Brian Kelleher	1 / 19	1 / 19	0 / 0	0

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Umar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9