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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Brian Kelleher won · SUB
Elo1489
Elo1397

Brian KellehervsRay RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Saturday, September 5, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brian Kelleher won

SUB

Model Prediction: Brian Kelleher wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Brian Kelleher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Kelleher at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Brian Kelleher has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Brian Kelleher has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).
  • Ray Rodriguez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Kelleher
Red Corner
VS
Ray Rodriguez
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+315
(24%)
1489
Elo
1397
39
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian KelleherL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22
L
SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22
L
SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22
L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23
L
SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24
latest
Ray Rodriguez
oldest →
L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Mar 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian KelleherMetricRay Rodriguez
3.31
Strikes / min
0.90
4.59
Strikes absorbed / min
3.89
54%
Strike defense
40%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
1.42
60%
Takedown defense
44%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.28Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap-2.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1522 vs 1500Strikes4.5 vs 1.2Takedowns1.2 vs 2.3Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 0.0
Brian KelleherRay Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Ray Rodriguez(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +91.8|Blue -91.8
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -48.9|Blue +48.9
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian KelleherTargetRay Rodriguez

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 100%
Leg
1
100% acc · 100%

By position

1
33% acc · 100%
Distance
1
20% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brian Kelleher rounds
0
even
1
Ray Rodriguez rounds
Round 1Ray Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:12Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 3
Sig Strikes
1 / 5
33%
Sig Str %
20%
1 / 3
Total Strikes
1 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:12

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ray Rodriguez1 / 51 / 51 / 10
1Brian Kelleher1 / 31 / 30 / 01

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17

Ray Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights2