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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Montel Jackson won · SUB R1

Elo1489

Elo1499

Brian KellehervsMontel JacksonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Saturday, December 29, 2018Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Montel Jackson won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:40

Style matchupBrian Kelleher: Well-roundedvsMontel Jackson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Brian Kelleher wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Montel Jackson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Kelleher at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (54.1%).
Montel Jackson has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Kelleher

Red Corner

Montel Jackson

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1489

Elo

1499

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'10"

167.64 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian KelleherL4 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Montel JacksonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rani Yahya · Apr 23

KOvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jul 24

vs Daniel Marcos · May 25

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Oct 25

DECvs Raoni Barcelos · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian KelleherMetricMontel Jackson

3.31

Strikes / min

3.02

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

1.40

54%

Strike defense

60%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

2.71

60%

Takedown defense

67%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.28Δ 2.90 — meaningful gap+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian KelleherMontel Jackson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Montel Jackson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.6|Blue +10.6

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian KelleherTargetMontel Jackson

By target zone

0% acc

Head

55% acc · 60%

0% acc

Body

67% acc · 20%

100% acc · 100%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

60% acc · 100%

Distance

58% acc · 70%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

Ground

67% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Kelleher rounds

even

Montel Jackson rounds

Round 1Montel Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:05

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 10

Sig Strikes

10 / 16

60%

Sig Str %

62%

6 / 10

Total Strikes

16 / 27

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Montel Jackson	10 / 16	16 / 27	0 / 0	1
1	Brian Kelleher	6 / 10	6 / 10	0 / 1	0

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Montel Jackson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights13