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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marlon Vera won · SUB R1

Elo1489

Elo1475

Brian KellehervsMarlon VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Saturday, July 22, 2017Uniondale, New York, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Vera won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:18

Style matchupBrian Kelleher: Well-roundedvsMarlon Vera: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Marlon Vera wins(56.9%)

Actual result: Marlon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marlon Vera at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marlon Vera has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Kelleher

Red Corner

Marlon Vera

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1489

Elo

1475

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian KelleherL4 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian KelleherMetricMarlon Vera

3.31

Strikes / min

4.18

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

5.34

54%

Strike defense

50%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

0.47

60%

Takedown defense

71%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.28evenly matched on net striking-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian KelleherMarlon Vera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Marlon Vera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.3|Blue -14.3

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian KelleherTargetMarlon Vera

By target zone

29% acc · 25%

Head

18% acc · 40%

100% acc · 38%

Body

67% acc · 40%

50% acc · 38%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

42% acc · 63%

Distance

29% acc · 80%

75% acc · 38%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Kelleher rounds

even

Marlon Vera rounds

Round 1Brian Kelleher edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:03

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 16

Sig Strikes

5 / 15

50%

Sig Str %

33%

14 / 22

Total Strikes

5 / 15

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marlon Vera	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 0	2
1	Brian Kelleher	8 / 16	14 / 22	1 / 3	0

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26