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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mario Bautista won · SUB R1

Elo1489

Elo1554

Brian KellehervsMario BautistaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Saturday, June 25, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mario Bautista won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:27

Style matchupBrian Kelleher: Well-roundedvsMario Bautista: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(79.0%)

Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Bautista at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Kelleher

Red Corner

Mario Bautista

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1489

Elo

1554

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'9"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian KelleherL3 streak

oldest →

vs Domingo Pilarte · Aug 21

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Mario BautistaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian KelleherMetricMario Bautista

3.31

Strikes / min

5.30

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.98

54%

Strike defense

54%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

1.91

60%

Takedown defense

55%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.28Δ 2.60 — meaningful gap+1.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian KelleherMario Bautista

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -65.3|Blue +65.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian KelleherTargetMario Bautista

By target zone

50% acc · 50%

Head

21% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

67% acc · 100%

Distance

27% acc · 67%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Kelleher rounds

even

Mario Bautista rounds

Round 1Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 3

Sig Strikes

6 / 17

66%

Sig Str %

35%

2 / 3

Total Strikes

6 / 17

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mario Bautista	6 / 17	6 / 17	2 / 2	1
1	Brian Kelleher	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0	0

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15