Featherweight

3 Rounds

Brian Kelleher won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1421

Brian KellehervsKevin CroomUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Saturday, January 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brian Kelleher won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kevin Croom wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Brian Kelleher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Croom at +290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Kevin Croom enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Brian Kelleher has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Brian Kelleher has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).
Kevin Croom has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Kelleher

Red Corner

Kevin Croom

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1489

Elo

1421

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'11"

167.64 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian KelleherL4 streak

oldest →

vs Domingo Pilarte · Aug 21

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Kevin CroomL3 streak

oldest →

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Sep 20

vs Alex Caceres · Feb 21

KOvs Alatengheili · Apr 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian KelleherMetricKevin Croom

3.31

Strikes / min

2.65

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

54%

Strike defense

41%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

0.48

60%

Takedown defense

30%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.28evenly matched on net striking-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian KelleherKevin Croom

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Kevin Croom(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +67.4|Blue -67.4

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian KelleherTargetKevin Croom

By target zone

43% acc · 66%

Head

26% acc · 60%

71% acc · 32%

Body

69% acc · 18%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

76% acc · 22%

By position

43% acc · 66%

Distance

35% acc · 97%

60% acc · 8%

Clinch

33% acc · 3%

71% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Kelleher rounds

even

Kevin Croom rounds

Round 1Kevin Croom edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:17

Knockdowns1

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:43

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 3Brian Kelleher edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control4:26

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 77

Sig Strikes

60 / 174

49.7%

Sig Str %

34%

67 / 123

Total Strikes

83 / 206

6 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:26

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Croom	33 / 88	43 / 104	0 / 1
1	Brian Kelleher	11 / 29	15 / 35	1 / 2
2	Kevin Croom	22 / 72	34 / 86	0 / 0
2	Brian Kelleher	14 / 25	22 / 34	2 / 2
3	Kevin Croom	5 / 14	6 / 16	0 / 0
3	Brian Kelleher	13 / 23	30 / 54	3 / 4

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Kevin Croom

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4