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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brian Kelleher won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1406

Brian KellehervsDomingo PilarteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Saturday, August 21, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brian Kelleher won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brian Kelleher wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Brian Kelleher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Kelleher at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Brian Kelleher has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (54.1%).
Domingo Pilarte has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Kelleher

Red Corner

Domingo Pilarte

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1489

Elo

1406

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

6'0"

167.64 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian KelleherL4 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Domingo PilarteL2 streak

oldest →

vs Felipe Colares · Jul 19

vs Journey Newson · Feb 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian KelleherMetricDomingo Pilarte

3.31

Strikes / min

1.31

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

54%

Strike defense

40%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

1.20

60%

Takedown defense

54%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.28evenly matched on net striking-1.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian KelleherDomingo Pilarte

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Domingo Pilarte(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +82.9|Blue -82.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -371.0|Blue +371.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian KelleherTargetDomingo Pilarte

By target zone

69% acc · 86%

Head

25% acc · 67%

67% acc · 7%

Body

50% acc · 33%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

0% acc

By position

33% acc · 4%

Distance

22% acc · 67%

Clinch

0% acc

73% acc · 96%

Ground

100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Kelleher rounds

even

Domingo Pilarte rounds

Round 1Brian Kelleher edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control4:50

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brian Kelleher edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:08

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 3Brian Kelleher edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control4:51

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 40

Sig Strikes

3 / 11

67.3%

Sig Str %

22%

236 / 279

Total Strikes

117 / 159

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:49

Ctrl Time

1:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Domingo Pilarte	0 / 2	35 / 49	0 / 0	0
1	Brian Kelleher	13 / 19	68 / 89	1 / 1	0
2	Domingo Pilarte	2 / 6	27 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Brian Kelleher	4 / 8	53 / 64	1 / 1	2
3	Domingo Pilarte	1 / 3	55 / 69	0 / 0	0
3	Brian Kelleher	11 / 13	115 / 126	1 / 1	0

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Domingo Pilarte

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3