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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cody Gibson won · SUB R1

Elo1489

Elo1458

Brian KellehervsCody GibsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Saturday, July 20, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Gibson won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:58

Style matchupBrian Kelleher: Well-roundedvsCody Gibson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Brian Kelleher wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Cody Gibson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cody Gibson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).
Cody Gibson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Kelleher

Red Corner

Cody Gibson

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1489

Elo

1458

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'10"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian KelleherL3 streak

oldest →

vs Domingo Pilarte · Aug 21

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

latest

Cody GibsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Miles Johns · Mar 24

vs Chad Anheliger · Nov 24

SUBvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Mar 25

KOvs Aoriqileng · Oct 25

SUBvs Abdul Hussein · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian KelleherMetricCody Gibson

3.31

Strikes / min

3.63

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

54%

Strike defense

57%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

2.12

60%

Takedown defense

69%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.28Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian KelleherCody Gibson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Cody Gibson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.0|Blue -31.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian KelleherTargetCody Gibson

By target zone

0% acc

Head

47% acc · 69%

0% acc

Body

67% acc · 15%

67% acc · 100%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

17% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 77%

Clinch

60% acc · 23%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Kelleher rounds

even

Cody Gibson rounds

Round 1Cody Gibson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:05

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 12

Sig Strikes

13 / 24

16%

Sig Str %

54%

2 / 13

Total Strikes

18 / 30

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

2:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody Gibson	13 / 24	18 / 30	2 / 5	1
1	Brian Kelleher	2 / 12	2 / 13	0 / 0	0

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Cody Gibson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11