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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Brian Foster won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Brian Foster
Elo1351
Forrest Petz

Brian FostervsForrest PetzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · Wednesday, September 15, 2010Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Brian Foster won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:07

Model Prediction: Forrest Petz wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Brian Foster wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Forrest Petz at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Brian Foster is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Forrest Petz has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Forrest Petz has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Foster
Red Corner
VS
Forrest Petz
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1490
Elo
1351
42
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian Foster
oldest →
W
SUBvs Matt Brown · Nov 10
latest
Forrest Petz
oldest →
L
vs Daniel Roberts · Jul 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian FosterMetricForrest Petz
3.30
Strikes / min
2.27
1.63
Strikes absorbed / min
2.20
65%
Strike defense
57%
3.67
TDs / 15 min
1.30
37%
Takedown defense
66%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.67Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1481Strikes13.0 vs 30.5Takedowns1.0 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Brian FosterForrest Petz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Brian Foster(2 fights)Forrest Petz(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.4|Blue -139.4
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +47.9|Blue -47.9
Grappler Score
Red +49.8|Blue -49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian FosterTargetForrest Petz

By target zone

15
60% acc · 88%
Head
1
17% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 6%
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 6%
Leg
0

By position

6
75% acc · 35%
Distance
1
14% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
11
58% acc · 65%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Brian Foster rounds
0
even
0
Forrest Petz rounds
Round 1Brian Foster edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:10
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
17 / 27
Sig Strikes
1 / 7
62%
Sig Str %
14%
20 / 32
Total Strikes
1 / 7
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:10
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Forrest Petz1 / 71 / 70 / 00
1Brian Foster17 / 2720 / 320 / 00

Brian Foster

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2

Forrest Petz

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2