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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rick Story won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1491

Brian EbersolevsRick StoryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · Saturday, November 16, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rick Story won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brian Ebersole wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Ebersole at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Brian Ebersole

Red Corner

Rick Story

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian Ebersole

oldest →

vs Claude Patrick · Dec 11

vs TJ Waldburger · Jun 12

vs James Head · Jul 12

vs John Howard · Sep 14

KOvs Omari Akhmedov · Jun 15

latest

Rick Story

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14

SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14

vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14

vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian EbersoleMetricRick Story

2.32

Strikes / min

3.80

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

56%

Strike defense

62%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

2.53

61%

Takedown defense

63%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+1.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian EbersoleRick Story

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Ebersole(8 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +308.0|Blue -308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian EbersoleTargetRick Story

By target zone

33% acc · 69%

Head

26% acc · 55%

43% acc · 14%

Body

54% acc · 30%

54% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

36% acc · 90%

Distance

35% acc · 87%

57% acc · 10%

Clinch

15% acc · 3%

Ground

88% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Ebersole rounds

even

Rick Story rounds

Round 1Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:18

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 114

Sig Strikes

71 / 199

36.7%

Sig Str %

34.7%

42 / 114

Total Strikes

75 / 203

0 / 7

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rick Story	30 / 80	30 / 80	0 / 0
1	Brian Ebersole	16 / 44	16 / 44	0 / 3
2	Rick Story	15 / 58	15 / 58	1 / 1
2	Brian Ebersole	13 / 37	13 / 37	0 / 2
3	Rick Story	26 / 61	30 / 65	1 / 1
3	Brian Ebersole	13 / 33	13 / 33	0 / 2

Brian Ebersole

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights16