Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
3 Rounds
Omari Akhmedov won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Brian Ebersole
Elo1494
Omari Akhmedov

Brian EbersolevsOmari AkhmedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · Saturday, June 6, 2015New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Omari Akhmedov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brian Ebersole wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Omari Akhmedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Ebersole at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ebersole (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brian Ebersole
Red Corner
VS
Omari Akhmedov
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
1490
Elo
1494
45
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian Ebersole
oldest →
W
vs Claude Patrick · Dec 11
W
vs TJ Waldburger · Jun 12
L
vs James Head · Jul 12
L
vs Rick Story · Nov 13
W
vs John Howard · Sep 14
latest
Omari Akhmedov
oldest →
W
vs Zak Cummings · Sep 19
W
vs Ian Heinisch · Dec 19
L
DECvs Chris Weidman · Aug 20
W
SUBvs Tom Breese · Jan 21
L
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian EbersoleMetricOmari Akhmedov
2.32
Strikes / min
2.97
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
2.84
56%
Strike defense
55%
1.70
TDs / 15 min
2.58
61%
Takedown defense
65%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1550 vs 1519Strikes34.1 vs 28.0Takedowns1.4 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.14 vs 0.33Form0.4 vs 0.5
Brian EbersoleOmari Akhmedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Brian Ebersole(8 fights)Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -3.4|Blue +3.4
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian EbersoleTargetOmari Akhmedov

By target zone

1
14% acc · 50%
Head
7
27% acc · 47%
0
0% acc
Body
4
80% acc · 27%
1
33% acc · 50%
Leg
4
44% acc · 27%

By position

2
15% acc · 100%
Distance
14
38% acc · 93%
0
Clinch
1
33% acc · 7%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brian Ebersole rounds
0
even
1
Omari Akhmedov rounds
Round 1Omari Akhmedov edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 13
Sig Strikes
15 / 40
15%
Sig Str %
37%
3 / 14
Total Strikes
16 / 41
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Omari Akhmedov15 / 4016 / 410 / 00
1Brian Ebersole2 / 133 / 140 / 10

Brian Ebersole

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

Omari Akhmedov

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14