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Welterweight
3 Rounds
James Head won · S-DEC R3
Elo1490
Brian Ebersole
Elo1352
James Head

Brian EbersolevsJames HeadUFC Prediction Result

UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · Saturday, July 21, 2012Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

James Head won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brian Ebersole wins(87.4%)

Actual result: James Head wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Ebersole at -325 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ebersole (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brian Ebersole
Red Corner
VS
James Head
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+295
(25%)
1490
Elo
1352
45
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian Ebersole
oldest →
W
vs Claude Patrick · Dec 11
W
vs TJ Waldburger · Jun 12
L
vs Rick Story · Nov 13
W
vs John Howard · Sep 14
L
KOvs Omari Akhmedov · Jun 15
latest
James HeadL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Nick Ring · Jun 11
W
SUBvs Papy Abedi · Apr 12
L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Dec 12
L
SUBvs Jason High · Aug 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian EbersoleMetricJames Head
2.32
Strikes / min
2.75
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
3.11
56%
Strike defense
49%
1.70
TDs / 15 min
0.41
61%
Takedown defense
66%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1576 vs 1501Strikes28.3 vs 25.5Takedowns2.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs 0.4
Brian EbersoleJames Head

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Brian Ebersole(8 fights)James Head(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.0|Blue -138.0
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -69.0|Blue +69.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian EbersoleTargetJames Head

By target zone

13
25% acc · 37%
Head
22
34% acc · 59%
9
60% acc · 26%
Body
13
81% acc · 35%
13
65% acc · 37%
Leg
2
67% acc · 5%

By position

32
42% acc · 91%
Distance
19
31% acc · 51%
1
25% acc · 3%
Clinch
17
81% acc · 46%
2
29% acc · 6%
Ground
1
100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Brian Ebersole rounds
1
even
1
James Head rounds
Round 1Brian Ebersole edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control1:14
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:01Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:14
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:43Control
Round 3James Head edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:26
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:32Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
35 / 88
Sig Strikes
37 / 83
41%
Sig Str %
43.7%
51 / 104
Total Strikes
62 / 108
1 / 15
TDs
1 / 1
8.3%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
1
2:54
Ctrl Time
3:16

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1James Head12 / 3117 / 360 / 01
1Brian Ebersole14 / 2423 / 330 / 40
2James Head16 / 3024 / 380 / 00
2Brian Ebersole10 / 2914 / 331 / 40
3James Head9 / 2221 / 341 / 10
3Brian Ebersole11 / 3514 / 380 / 70

Brian Ebersole

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

James Head

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5