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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Brian Ebersole won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Brian EbersolevsChris LytleUFC Prediction Result

UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · Saturday, February 26, 2011Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Brian Ebersole won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chris Lytle wins(71.1%)

Actual result: Brian Ebersole wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Lytle at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Lytle enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ebersole (53.5%).
Brian Ebersole has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Ebersole

Red Corner

Chris Lytle

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian Ebersole

oldest →

vs TJ Waldburger · Jun 12

vs James Head · Jul 12

vs Rick Story · Nov 13

vs John Howard · Sep 14

KOvs Omari Akhmedov · Jun 15

latest

Chris LytleW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Matt Brown · Jul 10

vs Matt Serra · Sep 10

SUBvs Dan Hardy · Aug 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian EbersoleMetricChris Lytle

2.32

Strikes / min

3.76

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

56%

Strike defense

58%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

0.70

61%

Takedown defense

55%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian EbersoleChris Lytle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Ebersole(8 fights)Chris Lytle(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +48.0|Blue -48.0

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian EbersoleTargetChris Lytle

By target zone

40% acc · 53%

Head

27% acc · 54%

90% acc · 28%

Body

65% acc · 46%

67% acc · 19%

Leg

0% acc

By position

45% acc · 47%

Distance

35% acc · 79%

62% acc · 25%

Clinch

42% acc · 21%

60% acc · 28%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Ebersole rounds

even

Chris Lytle rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 2Brian Ebersole edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:52

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Brian Ebersole edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control3:40

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 61

Sig Strikes

24 / 66

49.7%

Sig Str %

39.3%

73 / 104

Total Strikes

56 / 104

4 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

49.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:32

Ctrl Time

1:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Lytle	9 / 20	23 / 36	0 / 0	3
1	Brian Ebersole	4 / 10	13 / 20	1 / 2	0
2	Chris Lytle	9 / 33	18 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Brian Ebersole	17 / 31	31 / 45	1 / 3	1
3	Chris Lytle	6 / 13	15 / 23	0 / 0	2
3	Brian Ebersole	11 / 20	29 / 39	2 / 3	0

Brian Ebersole

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Chris Lytle

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4