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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brian Bowles won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1359

Brian BowlesvsTakeya MizugakiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · Saturday, July 2, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brian Bowles won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrian Bowles: Submission grapplervsTakeya Mizugaki: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Brian Bowles wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Takeya Mizugaki at +285 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Takeya Mizugaki has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Bowles

Red Corner

Takeya Mizugaki

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1352

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian BowlesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Damacio Page · Mar 11

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Nov 11

KOvs George Roop · May 13

latest

Takeya MizugakiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15

vs George Roop · Sep 15

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian BowlesMetricTakeya Mizugaki

2.36

Strikes / min

3.37

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

3.27

64%

Strike defense

57%

1.39

TDs / 15 min

1.46

54%

Takedown defense

70%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian BowlesTakeya Mizugaki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Bowles(4 fights)Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.6|Blue +6.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian BowlesTargetTakeya Mizugaki

By target zone

20% acc · 48%

Head

13% acc · 71%

88% acc · 52%

Body

0% acc

Leg

44% acc · 29%

By position

23% acc · 59%

Distance

16% acc · 93%

100% acc · 41%

Clinch

17% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Bowles rounds

even

Takeya Mizugaki rounds

Round 1Brian Bowles edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:47

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Brian Bowles edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control2:08

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Brian Bowles edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control3:13

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 86

Sig Strikes

14 / 89

33.7%

Sig Str %

15.3%

46 / 107

Total Strikes

33 / 111

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:08

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Takeya Mizugaki	5 / 29	9 / 34	0 / 0
1	Brian Bowles	14 / 36	15 / 37	0 / 0
2	Takeya Mizugaki	5 / 33	8 / 37	0 / 0
2	Brian Bowles	8 / 32	16 / 44	0 / 0
3	Takeya Mizugaki	4 / 27	16 / 40	0 / 0
3	Brian Bowles	7 / 18	15 / 26	1 / 1

Brian Bowles

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14