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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brian Bowles won · SUB R1

Elo1352

Brian BowlesvsDamacio PageUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · Thursday, March 3, 2011Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Brian Bowles won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:30

Style matchupBrian Bowles: Submission grapplervsDamacio Page: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Brian Bowles wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Brian Bowles wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Bowles at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Bowles threatens submissions; Damacio Page has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Brian Bowles has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Brian Bowles has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Brian Bowles has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Bowles

Red Corner

Damacio Page

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1352

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian BowlesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Takeya Mizugaki · Jul 11

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Nov 11

KOvs George Roop · May 13

latest

Damacio PageL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brad Pickett · Apr 12

SUBvs Alex Caceres · Jul 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian BowlesMetricDamacio Page

2.36

Strikes / min

2.05

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.47

64%

Strike defense

51%

1.39

TDs / 15 min

2.63

54%

Takedown defense

23%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.62evenly matched on net striking-0.42

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Bowles(4 fights)Damacio Page(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian BowlesTargetDamacio Page

By target zone

30% acc · 89%

Head

22% acc · 47%

50% acc · 11%

Body

67% acc · 12%

Leg

78% acc · 41%

By position

32% acc · 84%

Distance

33% acc · 94%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

27% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Bowles rounds

even

Damacio Page rounds

Round 1Brian Bowles edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:08

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 61

Sig Strikes

17 / 49

31%

Sig Str %

34%

20 / 62

Total Strikes

18 / 50

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Damacio Page	17 / 49	18 / 50	0 / 0	0
1	Brian Bowles	19 / 61	20 / 62	1 / 1	1

Brian Bowles

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Damacio Page

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3