Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brett Johns won · SUB R3

Elo1493

Elo1455

Brett JohnsvsTony GravelyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, January 25, 2020Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Brett Johns won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:53

Style matchupBrett Johns: WrestlervsTony Gravely: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Brett Johns wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Brett Johns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brett Johns at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Brett Johns

Red Corner

Tony Gravely

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1493

Elo

1455

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brett Johns

oldest →

vs Albert Morales · Jul 17

SUBvs Joe Soto · Dec 17

vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 18

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 18

vs Montel Jackson · Jul 20

latest

Tony GravelyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Maness · Sep 21

vs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 22

KOvs Johnny Munoz · Jun 22

vs Javid Basharat · Sep 22

vs Victor Henry · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brett JohnsMetricTony Gravely

2.86

Strikes / min

3.82

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

4.47

53%

Strike defense

44%

4.92

TDs / 15 min

5.40

58%

Takedown defense

52%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.98evenly matched on net striking-0.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brett JohnsTony Gravely

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brett Johns(7 fights)Tony Gravely(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.5|Blue -37.5

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brett JohnsTargetTony Gravely

By target zone

77% acc · 92%

Head

36% acc · 35%

67% acc · 6%

Body

86% acc · 23%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

92% acc · 42%

By position

27% acc · 8%

Distance

28% acc · 19%

100% acc · 22%

Clinch

81% acc · 81%

89% acc · 69%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brett Johns rounds

even

Tony Gravely rounds

Round 1Brett Johns edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:35

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2Tony Gravely edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns3

Control1:23

18Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:56Control

Round 3Brett Johns edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control2:20

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 47

Sig Strikes

26 / 44

76%

Sig Str %

47.3%

65 / 80

Total Strikes

43 / 66

6 / 9

TDs

5 / 7

83.3%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

7:18

Ctrl Time

4:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tony Gravely	7 / 13	14 / 22	1 / 2	0
1	Brett Johns	9 / 13	20 / 24	2 / 2	2
2	Tony Gravely	18 / 24	25 / 34	3 / 4	0
2	Brett Johns	4 / 5	13 / 16	3 / 6	0
3	Tony Gravely	1 / 7	4 / 10	1 / 1	0
3	Brett Johns	23 / 29	32 / 40	1 / 1	1

Brett Johns

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Tony Gravely

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8