Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brett Johns won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1364

Brett JohnsvsAlbert MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · Sunday, July 16, 2017Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Brett Johns won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrett Johns: WrestlervsAlbert Morales: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Brett Johns wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Brett Johns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brett Johns at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Brett Johns

Red Corner

Albert Morales

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1493

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brett JohnsW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Joe Soto · Dec 17

vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 18

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 18

SUBvs Tony Gravely · Jan 20

vs Montel Jackson · Jul 20

latest

Albert MoralesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Nov 16

vs Andre Soukhamthath · Mar 17

vs Benito Lopez · Dec 17

SUBvs Manny Bermudez · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brett JohnsMetricAlbert Morales

2.86

Strikes / min

3.81

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.96

53%

Strike defense

56%

4.92

TDs / 15 min

0.91

58%

Takedown defense

70%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.98evenly matched on net striking-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brett JohnsAlbert Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brett Johns(7 fights)Albert Morales(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +128.6|Blue -128.6

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -4.0|Blue +4.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brett JohnsTargetAlbert Morales

By target zone

53% acc · 93%

Head

19% acc · 71%

50% acc · 4%

Body

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

35% acc · 34%

Distance

21% acc · 82%

Clinch

74% acc · 66%

Ground

83% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brett Johns rounds

even

Albert Morales rounds

Round 1Brett Johns edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control4:07

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brett Johns edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:39

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Brett Johns edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:48

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 104

Sig Strikes

28 / 115

54.7%

Sig Str %

26%

172 / 231

Total Strikes

63 / 157

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

77.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:34

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Albert Morales	13 / 29	16 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Brett Johns	22 / 36	67 / 87	1 / 1	0
2	Albert Morales	9 / 41	26 / 65	0 / 0	0
2	Brett Johns	19 / 29	62 / 76	1 / 3	0
3	Albert Morales	6 / 45	21 / 60	0 / 0	0
3	Brett Johns	15 / 39	43 / 68	1 / 1	1

Brett Johns

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Albert Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5