← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Schaub won · SUB R1

Elo1354

Elo1356

Brendan SchaubvsMatt MitrioneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Brendan Schaub won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:06

Style matchupBrendan Schaub: WrestlervsMatt Mitrione: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Brendan Schaub wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Mitrione at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Mitrione is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Brendan Schaub has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Brendan Schaub has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
Matt Mitrione has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Schaub

Red Corner

Matt Mitrione

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1354

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'4"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan SchaubL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Minotauro Nogueira · Aug 11

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Apr 12

vs Lavar Johnson · Feb 13

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 14

KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 14

latest

Matt MitrioneL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14

KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15

KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan SchaubMetricMatt Mitrione

2.92

Strikes / min

3.55

2.22

Strikes absorbed / min

2.79

57%

Strike defense

64%

2.32

TDs / 15 min

0.00

72%

Takedown defense

55%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.70evenly matched on net striking+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brendan SchaubMatt Mitrione

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Schaub(10 fights)Matt Mitrione(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan SchaubTargetMatt Mitrione

By target zone

45% acc · 93%

Head

50% acc · 57%

100% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

47% acc · 100%

Distance

64% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Schaub rounds

even

Matt Mitrione rounds

Round 1Brendan Schaub edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:54

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 30

Sig Strikes

7 / 11

46%

Sig Str %

63%

14 / 31

Total Strikes

7 / 11

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:54

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Mitrione	7 / 11	7 / 11	0 / 0	0
1	Brendan Schaub	14 / 30	14 / 31	1 / 1	1

Brendan Schaub

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10

Matt Mitrione

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights13