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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Schaub won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1352

Brendan SchaubvsLavar JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · Saturday, February 23, 2013Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Schaub won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrendan Schaub: WrestlervsLavar Johnson: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Lavar Johnson wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Brendan Schaub wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lavar Johnson at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lavar Johnson is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Brendan Schaub has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Brendan Schaub has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Lavar Johnson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Schaub

Red Corner

Lavar Johnson

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1354

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan SchaubL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Minotauro Nogueira · Aug 11

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Apr 12

SUBvs Matt Mitrione · Sep 13

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 14

KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 14

latest

Lavar Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Joey Beltran · Jan 12

KOvs Pat Barry · May 12

SUBvs Stefan Struve · May 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan SchaubMetricLavar Johnson

2.92

Strikes / min

5.39

2.22

Strikes absorbed / min

2.54

57%

Strike defense

55%

2.32

TDs / 15 min

0.61

72%

Takedown defense

54%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.70Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap+2.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brendan SchaubLavar Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Schaub(10 fights)Lavar Johnson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan SchaubTargetLavar Johnson

By target zone

59% acc · 89%

Head

56% acc · 50%

100% acc · 11%

Body

91% acc · 28%

0% acc

Leg

89% acc · 22%

By position

20% acc · 6%

Distance

10% acc · 3%

71% acc · 28%

Clinch

85% acc · 47%

63% acc · 67%

Ground

82% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Schaub rounds

even

Lavar Johnson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control4:03

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Brendan Schaub edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control3:37

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 3Brendan Schaub edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control4:21

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 31

Sig Strikes

36 / 52

59%

Sig Str %

67.7%

77 / 108

Total Strikes

170 / 213

5 / 8

TDs

1 / 1

66.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

12:01

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lavar Johnson	16 / 22	46 / 54	1 / 1	0
1	Brendan Schaub	4 / 6	12 / 18	2 / 3	1
2	Lavar Johnson	13 / 19	76 / 92	0 / 0	0
2	Brendan Schaub	7 / 12	24 / 34	1 / 3	0
3	Lavar Johnson	7 / 11	48 / 67	0 / 0	0
3	Brendan Schaub	7 / 13	41 / 56	2 / 2	0

Brendan Schaub

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10

Lavar Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights4